View of God: Divine Base Rates and the Great Drama of Salvation

In my post on Type 1 and Type 2 error (which you'll need to read to make sense of this post) I focused mainly upon the selection ratios of conservative and liberal churches. If you recall, I used the idea of a selection ratio to think about the "errors" we can make in our decisions to become more inclusive or exclusive in the Christian church.

But it occurred to me after that post that I wasn't addressing what we think might be going on with the Divine base rate, about who God will save or damn.

(And to be clear, what I'm analyzing here is the crudest form of soteriological thinking. Most of us on this blog don't think about soteriology in these terms, and rightly so. But some people--a lot actually--do frame the issues like this. So it is interesting to see how that thinking might work.)

By analyzing the Divine base rate we quickly realize something I mentioned a few weeks ago: A view of God is often rumbling in the background when we talk about moral or doctrinal issues. That is, while it seems that we might be disagreeing about this or that bit of biblical interpretation or application, what we are really disagreeing about is what God is like. There is, in a sense, only one real argument Christians have: What is God like? Everything we fight about is really just another version, in different guise, of that same question. What is God like?

So we don't pick our selection ratios (who we think is Saved or Lost) willy nilly. Rather, we try to guess what the Divine base rate will be and set our selection ratio accordingly. For example, here is the Divine base rate of a "wrathful" God:
Given this Divine base rate, that very few people are going to make it into heaven, it makes sense for the conservative church to raise its selection ratio:
That is, given that the vast majority of the world population is damned you need to work hard to get yourself into that upper right hand quadrant. Life is like the Titanic: There are very few lifeboats, so you better find one.

Contrast this with the liberal view of a "merciful" God:
In light of this lowered base rate the liberal selection ratio makes sense:
That is, given that God is basically generous we, too, should be generous.

In short, the liberal and conservative selection ratios "make sense" given their background view of God.

Okay, in light of this how do the two groups view each other? What if you have a liberal selection ratio and God is wrathful? Or if you have a conservative selection ratio and God is merciful?

What you get, basically, are extreme forms of the Type 1 and Type 2 error patterns we noted in my prior post. For example, here is the liberal selection ratio with with a wrathful God:
Looking this over you can see the source of the conservative's alarm. For the conservative, given their background assumption of a wrathful base rate, the liberal selection ratio is just playing with fire. Look at all those Type 1 errors (right/bottom quadrant)! All those people who happily think they are going to heaven when they are actually going to be damned.

(Psychoanalytic Observation: All these Type 1 errors explain why conservatives read this blog and play "Catcher in the Rye". They are preoccupied with all these Type 1 errors. Thus, they want to warn us all.)

By contrast, here is the conservative selection ratio with a merciful God:
In this we can see the complaints the liberals have about the conservatives. Look at all those Type 2 errors (left/upper quadrant)! Conservatives are walking around damning to hell all these people who, in fact, are objects of God's grace. Such behavior is very unseemly. It's so judgmental.

All we are illustrating here is what I said above: Christians have only one debate with each other. What is God like? The conservative objection to the liberal selection ratio is really an objection to their view of God. Because if the liberals have God's base rate right then their selection ratio is just fine. Same with the liberal objections about the judgmental nature of the conservative selection ratio. At root, it's really an objection about the conservative view of God. Because if conservatives do have God's base rate right then their selection ratio also makes sense.

So, I guess we have to ask the question: Who has God's base rate right?

Let me go ahead can give you the correct answer. That'd be worth your time in reading all this, right? For me to give you the answer to the most vexing question in Christianity?

Because, to be honest, it is all very confusing. The bible really is a mixed bag on this score. Take Jesus. The same guy who said "Father forgive them" is the same guy who said "Broad is the road that leads to destruction." The point being, you can find plenty of Scripture to defend you view of God's base rate.

So here is what I think is going to happen. Take it for what it is worth.

I think both parties are correct. God is both merciful and wrathful. But here is the key point: God's wrath is his mercy and his mercy is his wrath. God is self-consistent. His attributes and desires do not come into conflict. That is the mistake I think the liberals and conservatives are making, they are pitting God's mercy against his wrath. And vice versa. Like it is an either/or.

But I think it's a both/and.

This, then, is the way I see it working out:
I think both the liberals and the conservatives have it right. The Divine base rate is low and it is also high. We stand under both the judgment (we are not yet who we should be) and the incomprehensible love of God. And these will work in concert to bring us to salvation. And although that last slide looks a little crowded, I'm simply trying to represent what the Greek Orthodox call theosis, when God will be "all in all." When we all "get to where we are going." The place where we are finally folded into the life and love of the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit.

So I think liberals and conservatives are both right about the Divine base rates. They just disagree on timing. Conservatives, you have the early picture. And it's an important picture. Liberals, you have a later vision. And it's good to know where we are headed. The problem with the both pictures is that out of sync neither work.

But synchronized, well, synchronized you can see the great drama of God's saving mercy and judgment.